Inflation figures that will be released on Friday are the next worry for homeowners fretting about high mortgage rates.
Forecast interest rate rises, which just two weeks ago were a distant prospect for next year, have been approaching with the speed of a freight train.
ASB, ANZ, BNZ and Westpac all now predict the Official Cash Rate will rise to 0.5 per cent on August 18.
That is after the Reserve Bank capitulated on Wednesday by less reservedly acknowledging the strength of the economy and reducing its monetary stimulus.
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But the banks are still tentative in their forecasts.
BNZ said an August rise was not a done deal, ASB suggested the decision would be finely balanced, and Westpac questioned whether a hike would in fact be premature.
Should the June-quarter inflation figure come in higher-than-expected, it could cement the banks new view an OCR rise is just five weeks away, while an undershoot in inflation will increase the doubts.
ANZ is expecting quarterly inflation to come in at 0.9 per cent and take the annual inflation rate to 3 per cent the top of the Reserve Banks 1 to 3 per cent target band.
If banks believe the Reserve Bank is about to move the OCR, it makes them more inclined to raise mortgage rates.
Westpac is expecting the annual rate to come in at 2.9 per cent, ASB is forecasting 2.8 per cent, and BNZ predicts 2.7 per cent.
If the annual inflation rate comes in any higher than 3 per cent, it is certain to reinforce concerns that the economy is overheating.
But the composition of the quarterly inflation will be important too, with the Reserve Bank likely to pay most attention to inflation in so-called non-tradable goods, which excludes the 40 per cent of goods and services whose price is mostly determined by overseas market forces.
The Reserve Bank said on Wednesday that a spike in inflation in the June and September quarters was likely to reflect factors that were either one-off in nature or temporary, such as higher oil prices, supply chain problems and higher transport costs.
The likely impact on longer-term inflation was uncertain because of reported underutilisation in the labour market, with a record number of workers in part-time work, modest wage growth and well-anchored inflation expectations.
But Infometrics chief economist Gareth Kiernan forecast inflation could climb above 3 per cent this year and said there were mounting questions about the Reserve Banks assumption the spike would be temporary.
Pressures on inflation include a tripling of container costs for international shipping, higher commodity prices because of recovering global demand, rising prices for oil and electricity, and higher wages needed to attract and retain staff in an increasingly tight labour market, he said.
The pressure on prices remains high and that will eventually be felt in peoples back pockets.
