BYU’s Alex BarcelloYoung Kwak/Associated Press
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Much like Southland Conference rival Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian is a colossal nuisance on defense, forcing 20.2 turnovers per game against D-I opponents. But whereas the Lumberjacks teams that pulled off first-round upsets in 2014 and 2016 could score at a high level, these Wildcats are a mess on offense. They gave Texas Tech a run for its money but ended up committing 22 turnovers in a 51-44 loss.
BYU Cougars
BYU was a legitimate threat for a deep run last year when this was the best three-point shooting team in the country. The Cougars do still have one lights-out shooter in Alex Barcello, and we can’t forget about the impact of big man and former Purdue transfer Matt Haarms in the paint. But they probably aren’t potent enough on either end of the floor to pull off multiple upsets.
Davidson Wildcats
The Wildcats almost upset Texas in November, and they have one heck of a three-headed perimeter weapon in Kellan Grady, Hyunjung Lee and Carter Collins. They’re also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. But the lack of a turnover-forcing defense is a deal-breaker here. When Davidson made its Elite Eight run with Stephen Curry, it averaged 8.1 steals per game during that 2007-08 season. This year’s team doesn’t even get five a night.
Rhode Island Rams
Say this much for the Rams: They have been battle-tested. Their nonconference schedule consisted of seven games (six away from home) against teams who entered play on Monday ranked in the KenPom Top 100. That included wins over Seton Hall and San Francisco and close calls against Arizona State and Western Kentucky. But they’re 7-7 overall, they don’t shoot all that well and they lost the turnover battle in 10 of those 14 games.
San Diego State Aztecs
Had we put this list together around Christmas, San Diego State would have been an easy choice for the top five. But the Aztecs haven’t looked like much of a tournament threat lately, losing three of their last six games and just barely squeaking out two of the three wins. They definitely have the experience factor, though, with five seniors and three juniors in their primary eight-man rotation.
UAB Blazers
UAB has one of the best turnover margins in the country, forcing 6.4 more turnovers per game than it commits. However, the Blazers do not shoot well at all and have yet to face a KenPom Top 150 foe.
Utah State Aggies
Neemias Queta is one of the most impactful big men in the country. But Utah State doesn’t start any seniors, it doesn’t force many turnovers, it’s just OK from three-point range, and the team leader in assists only averages 3.2. The Aggies don’t check any of the boxes for a Cinderella candidate, yet it does feel like they’re capable of riding Queta’s presence in the paint to an upset.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is an older version of Utah State. The Hilltoppers’ frontcourt star is Charles Bassey, and he can go for 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks against just about anyone. He did carry them to early wins over Alabama, Memphis and Rhode Island. However, the only viable perimeter threat on the roster is sixth man Luke Frampton, and beyond Bassey’s blocks, the overall effort on defense isn’t spectacular.
